Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd858…5ea5 sports 1257 markets active 4d ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$99 (-4%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate80%1003W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$53
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$110
other 2% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -53.9% -58.3% 0% 0% -58.3%
≤30d 541 -9.4% -18.1% 70% 54% -15.0%
≤90d 1257 -4.3% -13.4% 80% 58% -13.3%
all 1257 -4.3% -13.4% 80% 58% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 58% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 2% -21.6%
15% -29.3% 0% -29.2%
20% -36.2% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1003 / 254
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1257 / 1257
History coverage51d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1257 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -59%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 12 $1 −$1 -57%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $1 −$1 -49%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $1 −$1 -64%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $1 −$1 -59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -59%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $1 −$1 -64%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $1 −$1 -56%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $3 −$2 -59%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $1 −$1 -59%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $1 −$1 -53%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Stage Jun 09 $1 −$1 -80%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $2 −$1 -43%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -62%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $1 −$1 -68%
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Chandogs vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ameri Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Gamers Club L Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Close Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playo Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playof Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs Daxak Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Team Eclipse (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Sta Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs paiN Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster $0 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 14¢ $1 4d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut SELL Boston Breach $0 4d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Boston Breach 11¢ $1 4d
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South SELL Gior Dota Team $1 4d
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South BUY Gior Dota Team 12¢ $1 4d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C SELL WLGaming Esports $0 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C SELL WLGaming Esports $0 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY WLGaming Esports 10¢ $1 5d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL PCIFIC $0 5d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 13¢ $1 5d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Eintracht Spandau $0 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL B8 $0 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau 14¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 14¢ $1 6d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL BOMBA Team $0 7d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY BOMBA Team 11¢ $1 7d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A SELL HMBLE $0 7d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY HMBLE 13¢ $1 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C SELL Saigon Dino $0 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino 13¢ $1 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C SELL Saigon Dino $0 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino 13¢ $1 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C SELL Saigon Dino $0 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino 13¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series SELL Masked Regime $0 7d
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L SELL against All authority $0 7d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY Masked Regime 14¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L BUY against All authority 12¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Stage SELL L.820 $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2579 history records