Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd856…47c8 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized +$2 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%30W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +10.4% -0.1% 68% 34% -2.6%
≤30d 45 +8.0% -2.3% 67% 33% -11.7%
≤90d 45 +8.0% -2.3% 67% 33% -11.7%
all 45 +8.0% -2.3% 67% 33% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 33% -11.7%
10% -11.7% 31% -20.2%
15% -20.2% 20% -27.9%
20% -28.0% 18% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses30 / 15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)45 / 51
History coverage21d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 146 history records