Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd855…c823 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$604 (-14%) realized −$610 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%26W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$583
other 11% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +17.1% +5.9% 75% 75% +22.3%
≤30d 4 +17.1% +5.9% 75% 75% +22.3%
≤90d 4 +17.1% +5.9% 75% 75% +22.3%
all 50 -11.3% -19.8% 52% 52% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 52% -21.5%
10% -27.5% 52% -29.0%
15% -34.5% 52% -35.8%
20% -40.9% 30% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$85 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$610
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage223d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Karmine Corp 47¢ 55¢ $37 $43 +$6 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $69 +$28 +40%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 28 $23 −$22 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $55 +$37 +67%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $34 +$21 +61%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $50 +$42 +85%
Spread: Clippers (-7.5) Nov 30 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5) Nov 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $71 +$176 +248%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) Nov 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO3) Nov 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Nov 21 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Nov 21 $65 +$24 +38%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) Nov 21 $170 +$62 +36%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports (BO3) Nov 21 $72 +$62 +86%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 21 $76 +$66 +87%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 21 $100 +$75 +75%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) Nov 20 $185 −$185 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 20 $199 −$199 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO3) Nov 20 $228 −$228 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Nov 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Nov 20 $100 +$50 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Nov 20 $100 +$46 +46%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Nov 20 $160 +$72 +45%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) Nov 20 $93 +$67 +72%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) Nov 19 $79 −$79 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 19 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Austria win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Nov 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Nov 18 $60 +$34 +57%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Nov 18 $80 +$57 +71%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Nov 18 $50 +$40 +79%
Dota 2: OG vs Heroic (BO3) Nov 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Tidebound - Game 2 Winner Nov 18 $100 +$41 +41%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Tidebound - Game 1 Winner Nov 18 $92 +$40 +44%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) Nov 18 $80 +$131 +164%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Nov 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Bulls vs. Nuggets Nov 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Knicks vs. Heat Nov 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Cobra - Game 2 Winner Nov 17 $72 +$45 +62%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 2 Winner Nov 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 1 Winner Nov 17 $83 +$50 +60%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) Nov 17 $100 +$85 +85%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO3) Nov 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) Nov 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Tidebound - Game 2 Winner Nov 17 $141 +$67 +48%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Tidebound - Game 1 Winner Nov 17 $97 +$46 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 47¢ $38 36m
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) SELL T1 85¢ $97 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 60¢ $69 3h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 9¢ $23 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $55 7h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 55¢ $55 7h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $34 8h
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 66¢ $92 209d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-11-30? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 209d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 209d
Spread: Clippers (-7.5) BUY Clippers 57¢ $49 210d
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5) BUY Timberwolves 53¢ $50 210d
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 210d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 87¢ $247 210d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $71 210d
Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 81¢ $70 210d
Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 210d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $70 210d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) BUY Team Liquid 59¢ $102 216d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO3) BUY PARIVISION 35¢ $100 217d
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 68¢ $89 218d
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $89 218d
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 72¢ $65 218d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) SELL Team Spirit 92¢ $59 218d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) SELL Team Spirit 77¢ $172 218d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports (BO3) SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $134 218d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) BUY Team Spirit 59¢ $170 218d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports (BO3) BUY BetBoom Team 54¢ $72 218d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $142 218d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $76 218d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.90 · official $42.90 (match) · 82 history records