Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D8 0xd855…47d6 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$37 (-3%) realized −$27 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate67%8W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$79per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit7%portable

Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$63

7 days+$77

14 days+$24

30 days+$24

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)-6.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+15.4%	+4.4%	71%	71%	+3.1%
≤30d	10	+11.8%	+1.2%	70%	70%	-6.8%
≤90d	11	+3.6%	-6.2%	64%	64%	-15.2%
all	12	+3.6%	-6.2%	67%	58%	-14.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.2%	58%	-14.3%
10%	-15.2%	50%	-22.5%
15%	-23.4%	33%	-30.0%
20%	-30.9%	17%	-36.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -3% → late +10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$81 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.83 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage

Net worth$90

Realized−$27

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses8 / 4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)12 / 14

History coverage191d

Avg bet$79

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	53¢	42¢	$50	$40	−$10 (-20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$101	+$63	+62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	Jun 25	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$65	+$21	+32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$61	+$93	+152%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$100	+$16	+16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$76	+$35	+46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$53	+$26	+50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$51	+$12	+24%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Jun 16	$144	−$92	-64%
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	May 07	$104	−$81	-78%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?	Jan 16	$100	+$4	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	53¢	$51	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$61	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$65	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$100	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$76	6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	17¢	$64	11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$51	12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$53	12d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	SELL Yes	4¢	$52	12d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$70	47d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$51	52d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$22	52d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	SELL Yes	16¢	$23	52d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	BUY Yes	69¢	$104	163d
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?	SELL Yes	5¢	$104	163d
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?	BUY Yes	5¢	$100	168d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	BUY Yes	11¢	$100	190d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.66 · official $89.66 (match) · 27 history records