Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd854…2142 other 24 markets active 2d ago coverage 420d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% $0
world 36% $0
other 27% +$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -1.1% -10.5% 46% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

420d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage420d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $71 −$2 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $122 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $42 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $99 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $119 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Browns draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 25 $117 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $120 +$1 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in t Apr 22 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $38 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $37 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $40 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $43 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $36 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $24 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $31 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $44 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $42 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 7d
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $2 359d
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend SELL No 97¢ $11 374d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship SELL No 98¢ $11 374d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 375d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 SELL No 98¢ $12 375d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records