Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd851…64d7 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$48
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$6
crypto 30% +$57
sports 13% −$1
weather 3% +$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.0% -16.7% 67% 56% +20.0%
≤30d 13 -2.9% -12.2% 77% 54% +17.6%
≤90d 13 -2.9% -12.2% 77% 54% +17.6%
all 13 -2.9% -12.2% 77% 54% +17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 54% +17.6%
10% -20.6% 15% +6.4%
15% -28.2% 15% -3.9%
20% -35.3% 15% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.37 per $1 lost it wins $4.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)13 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $15 −$8 -50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$57 +56%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$3 +64%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 40¢ $8 45m
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 76¢ $15 51m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $159 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 4d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 5d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 5d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 5d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 5d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 97¢ $6 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $8 5d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 83¢ $5 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 71¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.05 · official $176.06 (match) · 43 history records