Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd850…e26c
crypto · 965 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$10,598 +224%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$953 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$962
Realized−$953
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses426 / 594
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1020 / 965
History coverage12d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day115.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 16 History 1020 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$272
7 days−$272
14 days−$953
30 days−$953
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - December 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $40 $78 +$38 (+96%)
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? No 89¢ 90¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? No 76¢ 76¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? No 88¢ 84¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Trump say "Interest rate" this week? No 79¢ 76¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? No 77¢ 80¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+5%)
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 70¢ 68¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? No 88¢ 96¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Will Trump say "Stage" during UFC 250? No 75¢ 58¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Will Trump say "Strong" during UFC 250? No 66¢ 52¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-20%)
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 48¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+108%)
BNB Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 48¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+108%)
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 49¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+104%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+104%)
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+104%)
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+104%)
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - December 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$77 +192%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 69% −$424
other 21% −$121
politics 6% −$100
sports 2% −$7
world 1% −$28
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 23m
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 61¢ $9 56m
Will Trump say "Stage" during UFC 250? BUY No 75¢ $15 1h
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 70¢ $14 1h
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? BUY No 88¢ $11 1h
Will Trump say "Strong" during UFC 250? BUY No 66¢ $13 1h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? BUY No 77¢ $22 1h
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF BUY No 65¢ $0 1h
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? BUY No 79¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? BUY No 88¢ $30 1h
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? BUY No 89¢ $29 1h
Will Trump say "Interest rate" this week? BUY No 79¢ $29 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Will the announcers say "Eye poke" during UFC 250? BUY No 40¢ $8 1h
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? BUY No 76¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 8d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 8d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 8d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 8d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -91.0% -91.8% 4% 4% -69.7%
≤30d 1020 -17.2% -25.1% 42% 42% -27.1%
≤90d 1020 -17.2% -25.1% 42% 42% -27.1%
all 1020 -17.2% -25.1% 42% 42% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover115.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 42% -27.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 42% -34.1%
15% -38.8% 42% -40.4%
20% -44.8% 42% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $961.97 · official $961.54 (match) · 3500 history records