Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd850…5c18 crypto 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$33,299 (-79%) realized −$33,299 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate91%129W / 13L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$27,093
other 25% −$10,099
tech 3% −$944
world 1% +$4,836
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 72 -2.4% -11.7% 97% 0% -87.1%
all 142 -0.7% -10.1% 91% 1% -81.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 1% -81.0%
10% -18.7% 1% -82.8%
15% -26.6% 1% -84.5%
20% -33.8% 1% -86.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$2,936 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$33,299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses129 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage200d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 23? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 23? Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on May 11? May 22 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 11? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 11? May 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 30? May 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 22? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 23? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 23? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 23? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 22? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 23? Apr 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 23? Apr 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 1 Apr 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 19? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 18? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 19? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 19? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 1 Apr 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 11? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 11? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 11? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 7? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 7? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 7? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 7? Apr 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 7? Apr 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 6? Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $20 36d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 36d
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $5 48d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $3 48d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $12 48d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 59d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 23? BUY No 99¢ $14 67d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 67d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 67d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 67d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $2 67d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 23? BUY No 99¢ $1 67d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 67d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 71d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 71d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 71d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 71d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 71d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 71d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 71d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 71d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 1 BUY No 98¢ $1 71d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 1 BUY No 99¢ $2 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.68 · official $29.68 (match) · 288 history records