Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd84d…5dd7 crypto 1151 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$131 (-1%) realized −$145 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate68%781W / 368L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$42
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$762
finance 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.2% +0.6% 100% 67% +0.5%
≤30d 10 +6.1% -4.0% 70% 50% -4.8%
≤90d 576 -3.8% -13.0% 68% 54% -13.1%
all 1149 -3.6% -12.7% 68% 45% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 45% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 19% -20.9%
15% -28.7% 5% -28.5%
20% -35.7% 1% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses781 / 368
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1149 / 1151
History coverage110d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? No 75¢ 94¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? No 87¢ 78¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $101 +$11 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $61 +$7 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $60 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $101 −$20 -20%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 20? May 20 $61 −$3 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 20? May 20 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 19? May 20 $61 +$12 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 19? May 20 $61 +$8 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 14? May 15 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 7? May 08 $101 +$11 +11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 7? May 07 $10 −$3 -30%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 7? May 07 $2 −$1 -52%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 7? May 07 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 6? May 07 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 5? May 06 $60 +$6 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 5? May 06 $60 +$6 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 3? May 04 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 3? May 04 $61 −$38 -62%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $100 +$25 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $80 +$7 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $80 +$17 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $60 +$8 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $60 +$9 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $60 +$6 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $60 +$13 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 09 $84 +$23 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 09 $98 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 09 $95 −$25 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 09 $70 −$20 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 09 $70 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 09 $91 −$26 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 09 $96 −$26 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 09 $94 −$22 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 09 $84 −$14 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 09 $92 −$22 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 09 $95 −$15 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 09 $117 −$47 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 09 $98 −$28 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 09 $70 −$37 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 09 $85 −$15 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 09 $97 −$27 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $101 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $102 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $111 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $103 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $9 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $101 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $101 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $68 42h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $61 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $67 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? SELL No 99¢ $67 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? BUY No 88¢ $60 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 90¢ $60 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? SELL Down 71¢ $81 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? BUY Down 86¢ $101 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 20? SELL No 85¢ $57 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 20? SELL No 74¢ $60 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 20? BUY No 88¢ $61 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 20? BUY No 73¢ $61 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 19? SELL No 100¢ $73 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 19? SELL No 99¢ $68 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 19? BUY No 87¢ $61 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 19? BUY No 82¢ $61 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 14? SELL No 100¢ $121 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 14? BUY No 82¢ $101 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 7? SELL No 99¢ $2 40d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 7? SELL No 64¢ $7 41d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 7? SELL No 16¢ $1 41d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 7? SELL No 8¢ $3 41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 7? BUY No 90¢ $101 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.48 · official $214.20 (match) · 2877 history records