Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd84a…822c other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% $0
other 31% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 67% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 -0.4% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 32 -1.8% -11.1% 34% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage469d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $73 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $34 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $53 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $57 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $53 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $4 $0 -7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 07 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $13 $0 -3%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $33 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $23 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $30 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $30 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $25 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $26 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $3 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $23 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.97 · official $30.97 (match) · 94 history records