Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd849…6ac7 sports 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,942 (+2%) realized +$11,930 · open +$10,012
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate65%88W / 47L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,675per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$5,763est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$106,087now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,096
7 days−$3,813
14 days−$9,459
30 days−$8,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$15,785
other 28% +$6,092
crypto 12% +$24,323
politics 0% +$1,403
world 0% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -3.6% -12.8% 74% 57% -10.7%
≤30d 85 -7.5% -16.3% 65% 53% -10.3%
≤90d 135 -4.7% -13.8% 65% 56% -8.8%
all 135 -4.7% -13.8% 65% 56% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 56% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 38% -17.6%
15% -29.5% 21% -25.5%
20% -36.4% 13% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$10,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,731 vs −$4,982 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$106,087
Realized+$11,930
Unrealized+$10,012
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses88 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$5,763
Open positions6
Markets (closed)135 / 141
History coverage75d
Avg bet$7,675
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 97¢ $39,347 $43,707 +$4,360 (+11%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $19,976 $21,890 +$1,914 (+10%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $14,496 $14,619 +$122 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? No 75¢ 74¢ $11,251 $11,176 −$75 (-1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $8,231 $9,060 +$829 (+10%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Juan Manuel Cerundolo 33¢ 66¢ $2,773 $5,635 +$2,862 (+103%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Jun 24 $2,348 −$1,364 -58%
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $4,053 +$350 +9%
Will Panama be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 24 $1,573 +$123 +8%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $13,861 +$1,262 +9%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,004 −$5,004 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$16 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4,314 +$676 +16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $2,317 −$1,370 -59%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $2,674 +$691 +26%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $3,192 +$1,773 +56%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,743 +$263 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $5,145 −$5,145 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $2,199 +$543 +25%
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 22 $4,002 +$91 +2%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $3,662 +$532 +14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,721 +$991 +17%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $4,660 +$1,008 +22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $887 −$887 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $12,127 −$9,422 -78%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,764 +$190 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 21 $912 −$24 -3%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,021 +$654 +32%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $12,791 −$8,983 -70%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $10,095 +$605 +6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6,987 +$1,013 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,026 −$3,026 -100%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $15,130 +$6,300 +42%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $6,540 +$3,301 +50%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $34,105 +$4,514 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5,023 +$602 +12%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $4,519 +$1,817 +40%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $3,443 +$1,721 +50%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $2,459 +$421 +17%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $3,138 +$865 +28%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $4,505 +$1,091 +24%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $3,683 +$817 +22%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $8,122 +$4,247 +52%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $3,778 −$1,278 -34%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $4,720 +$919 +20%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $5,610 +$2,859 +51%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $2,565 −$2,565 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $6,083 −$447 -7%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 12 $13,785 −$13,785 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 12 $5,765 −$2,875 -50%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $2,068 +$503 +24%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $10,963 +$4,632 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 197.5 Jun 11 $5,947 +$652 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $6,607 +$676 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 09 $19,540 +$1,379 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $129 −$97 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 32¢ $956 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $198 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $1 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $1 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $1 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $1 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $109 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $1 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $4 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $66 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $11 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $67 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $1 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $1 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $2 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $1 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $1 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 22¢ $1 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 25¢ $183 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 25¢ $1 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 25¢ $30 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 27¢ $15 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 27¢ $209 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 27¢ $10 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 27¢ $10 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 27¢ $31 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 34¢ $545 4h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 58¢ $395 5h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 58¢ $1,944 5h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 58¢ $9 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106,086.55 · official $106,086.55 (match) · 934 history records