Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd844…378e world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$16
crypto 12% $0
other 10% +$2
sports 10% $0
politics 7% −$1
tech 7% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 50% -6.4%
≤30d 11 +6.6% -3.5% 64% 27% -6.4%
≤90d 12 +6.1% -4.0% 58% 25% -6.4%
all 33 +1.9% -7.8% 52% 12% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 12% -7.7%
10% -16.6% 0% -16.5%
15% -24.7% 0% -24.6%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.04 per $1 lost it wins $8.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage296d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $19 +$3 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $117 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $48 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $39 +$6 +15%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $49 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $43 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $63 +$4 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $2 $0 +8%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $11 +$2 +14%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $25 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 21 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during remarks in Wisconsin on Aug 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $52 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $57 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 33h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $54 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $54 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $8 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $36 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $7 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $28 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $49 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $49 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $17 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $18 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $9 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 88¢ $43 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $47 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 69¢ $45 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $42 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $27 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $2 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $6 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.84 · official $51.84 (match) · 148 history records