Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd83c…19dc
crypto · 835 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$63,584 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$63,914 · open +$330
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$33,293
Realized−$63,914
Unrealized+$330
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses695 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)829 / 835
Avg bet$711
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 829 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,311
7 days−$42,927
14 days−$66,337
30 days−$65,868
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? No 93¢ 94¢ $12,998 $13,127 +$129 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? No 83¢ 83¢ $5,390 $5,395 +$5 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $4,400 $4,928 +$528 (+12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $4,550 $4,725 +$175 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? No 77¢ 64¢ $3,330 $2,733 −$597 (-18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $2,295 $2,386 +$91 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $299 $0 −$299 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $228 $0 −$228 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 12 $1,083 +$89 +8%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 12 $427 +$22 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $1,003 +$44 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1,504 +$56 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $502 +$23 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $202 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $1,006 +$99 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $2,510 +$142 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $14,216 +$1,559 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $9,924 +$926 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $98 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $3,407 +$683 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $1,411 +$167 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $5,026 +$390 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $503 +$48 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $607 +$110 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $508 +$152 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $9,166 +$970 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $7,184 +$638 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,174 +$211 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $1,002 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $1,003 +$47 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $501 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $1,004 +$56 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $502 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $1,003 +$47 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $501 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $501 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $501 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $431 +$69 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3,064 +$216 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 09 $11,584 −$4,304 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $1,002 +$30 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $1,040 +$158 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $1,002 +$34 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $9,689 −$481 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $1,001 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $2,514 +$207 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $13,152 +$1,362 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $56,644 −$46,800 -83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $8,216 −$8,163 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $14,191 −$14,088 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $4,664 +$245 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$65,694
finance 3% +$1,405
world 1% +$705
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $1,166 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,171 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $317 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $129 2h
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $449 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 73¢ $41 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 74¢ $1,725 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $501 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $502 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $501 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $502 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $502 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $4,579 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $501 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $505 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $205 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $2,101 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $5,455 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $42 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $5,579 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $10 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $6,492 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $786 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $501 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $501 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +2.9% -6.9% 91% 26% -24.2%
≤30d 69 -2.3% -11.6% 87% 25% -19.6%
≤90d 829 -3.0% -12.2% 84% 40% -17.1%
all 829 -3.0% -12.2% 84% 40% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 40% -17.1%
10% -20.6% 13% -25.0%
15% ← realistic here -28.3% 4% -32.3%
20% -35.3% 2% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,293.07 · official $33,293.07 (match) · 3500 history records