Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd83b…af3a sports 102 markets active 1d ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$430 (+6%) realized +$430 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate68%69W / 33L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$297
other 10% +$115
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +9.7% -0.8% 64% 55% -6.1%
≤30d 39 +18.1% +6.8% 67% 64% -9.6%
≤90d 39 +18.1% +6.8% 67% 64% -9.6%
all 102 +6.3% -3.8% 68% 60% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 60% -4.6%
10% -13.0% 44% -13.8%
15% -21.4% 36% -22.1%
20% -29.1% 21% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$44 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$430
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses69 / 33
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage187d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $106 +$13 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$3 +156%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$88 +43%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $131 +$68 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $55 +$5 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$29 +152%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $101 +$57 +57%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 30 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 30 $1 +$6 +550%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +53%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $29 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +44%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $100 +$18 +18%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $101 +$49 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $101 +$26 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $100 +$32 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $43 +$5 +11%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $11 +$20 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 27 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner May 27 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 16 $1 $0 +14%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 06 $144 +$71 +50%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 04 $229 +$112 +49%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 30 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 29 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 28 $130 −$2 -2%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 28 $165 +$46 +28%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX - Game 3 Winner Jan 28 $160 +$5 +3%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX - Game 1 Winner Jan 28 $155 +$5 +3%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 28 $70 −$27 -39%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 27 $105 +$45 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 72¢ $119 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 61¢ $5 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $101 27h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 27¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $5 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 38¢ $2 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $290 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 69¢ $202 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $200 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $131 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $39 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $49 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 6d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 48¢ $24 10d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 48¢ $3 10d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $103 17d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $5 17d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Deep Cross Gaming 48¢ $20 17d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Dplus KIA 100¢ $159 17d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 63¢ $101 17d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $118 17d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 85¢ $100 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 237 history records