Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd83b…1ef2 sports 90 markets active 3d ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$77 (+1%) realized +$113 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%52W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$3,965now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$26
14 days+$364
30 days+$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$225
sports 28% −$161
crypto 7% −$24
politics 0% −$5
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +6.5% -3.6% 50% 50% -13.6%
≤30d 38 +6.4% -3.7% 63% 63% +3.7%
≤90d 84 +0.2% -9.4% 62% 52% -8.0%
all 84 +0.2% -9.4% 62% 52% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 52% -8.0%
10% -18.0% 32% -16.8%
15% -26.0% 24% -24.8%
20% -33.2% 17% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$31 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$3,965
Realized+$113
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses52 / 32
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 90
History coverage46d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,000 $1,139 +$139 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1,001 $819 −$182 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $825 $791 −$34 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $825 $775 −$50 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $350 $442 +$92 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $25 +$56 +230%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $29 −$29 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $113 −$3 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $45 +$20 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$27 +130%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $50 −$40 -80%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $51 −$8 -16%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $50 +$8 +16%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $51 +$8 +16%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $55 +$15 +27%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $51 +$15 +30%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $59 −$28 -48%
Paul vs. Perricard: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 08 $85 −$6 -7%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $53 −$39 -74%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $115 +$28 +24%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $506 +$449 +89%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $144 +$86 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $51 +$36 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Liam Draxl Jun 06 $33 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$11 +44%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $131 +$28 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$22 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $114 −$31 -27%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $194 −$192 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 06 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 06 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 06 $26 +$11 +42%
Istanbul: Lina Gjorcheska vs Xinran Sun May 05 $40 −$40 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Anastasia Potapova vs Niko May 05 $35 +$11 +32%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Cristian Garin vs Jan Choi May 05 $50 +$4 +7%
Wuxi: Akira Santillan vs Coleman Wong May 05 $67 −$67 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 05 $7 −$6 -84%
Jiujiang: Dalila Spiteri vs Kyoka Okamura May 05 $29 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 05 $2 +$6 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 05 $8 +$4 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 55¢ $41 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $50 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 4d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 47¢ $29 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $79 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 71¢ $20 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 72¢ $37 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 94¢ $47 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $45 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $20 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 40¢ $30 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 71¢ $55 5d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens SELL Elise Mertens 16¢ $10 5d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 77¢ $50 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic SELL Marie Bouzkova 52¢ $43 6d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 70¢ $50 6d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Marie Bouzkova 60¢ $51 6d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Iva Jovic 100¢ $58 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $847 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $847 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $360 6d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 86¢ $50 6d
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra SELL Solana Sierra 78¢ $58 6d
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 66¢ $51 7d
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $70 7d
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 78¢ $55 7d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Tallon Griekspoor 86¢ $66 7d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tallon Griekspoor 65¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,965.13 · official $3,965.13 (match) · 225 history records