Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd83b…3a7a crypto 1677 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$200 (-1%) realized −$200 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%1647W / 359L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day50.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,340
7 days−$1,361
14 days−$1,358
30 days−$1,421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 644 -51.0% -55.7% 48% 0% -38.2%
≤30d 1525 -21.9% -29.3% 77% 0% -20.5%
≤90d 2006 -16.6% -24.6% 82% 0% -17.6%
all 2006 -16.6% -24.6% 82% 0% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 0% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 0% -25.5%
15% -38.4% 0% -32.7%
20% -44.4% 0% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1647 / 359
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2006 / 1677
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day50.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2006 Trades
no open positions (359 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $13 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.03 · official $3.03 (match) · 3500 history records