Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D8 0xd838…56db other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$16 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%25W / 28L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$7
other 28% +$6
politics 14% $0
tech 10% $0
sports 6% +$4
crypto 6% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.6% -10.0% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.6% -10.0% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 53 +3.1% -6.7% 47% 6% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 6% -8.6%
10% -15.6% 6% -17.4%
15% -23.8% 6% -25.4%
20% -31.2% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.41 per $1 lost it wins $4.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses25 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage473d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $26 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $34 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $58 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $69 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $13 $0 -1%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 28 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May? May 31 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in May? May 28 $17 $0 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? May 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 24 $19 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 22 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 20 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $20 $0 +2%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 07 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 05 $20 $0 -1%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before April? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump dance in March? Mar 30 $21 $0 -0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 29 $21 +$1 +3%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 21 $21 $0 +2%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 19 $21 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $20 $0 +1%
Did Kanye sell his twitter account? Mar 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $19 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $26 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $28 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $9 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $37 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $17 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $31 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.38 · official $19.38 (match) · 150 history records