Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd838…96cc
sports · 8 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$25 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$31 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$37
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Tristan Boyer 52¢ 44¢ $44 $37 −$6 (-14%)
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Dusan Lajovic 59¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $76 −$32 -42%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $51 −$30 -60%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $115 −$8 -7%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $99 +$16 +16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $55 +$87 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% −$61
other 17% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Tristan Boyer 52¢ $44 32m
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Nuno Borges 48¢ $44 33m
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 81¢ $76 47m
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Dusan Lajovic 59¢ $30 1h
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Daniil Medvedev 79¢ $107 1h
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 84¢ $115 1h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato SELL Jesper de Jong 100¢ $115 1h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato BUY Jesper de Jong 86¢ $99 2h
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Dusan Lajovic 56¢ $19 2h
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Dusan Lajovic 57¢ $20 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 12h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 55¢ $38 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $29 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.7% -6.2% 33% 33% -2.4%
≤30d 6 +3.7% -6.2% 33% 33% -2.4%
≤90d 6 +3.7% -6.2% 33% 33% -2.4%
all 6 +3.7% -6.2% 33% 33% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 33% -2.4%
10% -15.2% 17% -11.8%
15% -23.4% 17% -20.3%
20% -30.9% 17% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.41 · official $37.41 (match) · 17 history records