Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd837…2af7
world · 100 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$462 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$374 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$411
Realized−$374
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses42 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions29
Markets (closed)75 / 100
History coverage51d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day66.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 29 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$46
14 days−$117
30 days−$552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $77 $82 +$5 (+6%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 56¢ 65¢ $60 $69 +$9 (+16%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 53¢ 73¢ $17 $23 +$7 (+39%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 32¢ 34¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+8%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 74¢ 97¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+31%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 70¢ 99¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+42%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 40¢ 46¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+13%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-10%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-28%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 19¢ 26¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+39%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 8¢ $39 $8 −$31 (-79%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 42¢ 44¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 46¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 72¢ 93¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+29%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 47¢ 44¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 42¢ 24¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-42%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 37¢ 18¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-52%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 76¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 85¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 33¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 31¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +34%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $38 +$21 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $285 −$13 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $27 −$9 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $443 −$9 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $467 +$2 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 09 $4 +$3 +82%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 09 $21 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $125 −$16 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 09 $45 −$13 -29%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $16 −$16 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $413 −$85 -21%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $59 +$16 +27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 31 $11 −$2 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $9 −$2 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,479 −$52 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $93 +$66 +71%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $6 +$4 +75%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $20 +$3 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $7 +$1 +8%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $509 −$25 -5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $401 +$39 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $93 −$13 -14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $399 −$68 -17%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 26 $20 −$12 -62%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $291 −$251 -86%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $26 +$9 +34%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $309 −$3 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 25 $64 +$5 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 25 $11 +$10 +86%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $3 −$1 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $56 −$15 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $625 −$101 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 24 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 24 $35 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $97 +$12 +12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $567 −$39 -7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $203 +$9 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $630 +$2 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $145 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $119 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 99% −$314
politics 1% +$4
sports 0% −$53
other 0% +$12
finance 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $18 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 14m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $0 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 22¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 23¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 22¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 22¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 21¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 21¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 21¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $21 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 25¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $9 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 26¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 21¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 20% -12.2%
≤30d 57 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 21% -15.3%
≤90d 75 +6.6% -3.6% 56% 25% -12.9%
all 75 +6.6% -3.6% 56% 25% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover66.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 25% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 21% -21.3%
15% -21.2% 16% -28.9%
20% -28.9% 16% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.91 · official $410.30 (match) · 3500 history records