Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd834…1d87
weather · 163 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$489 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$423 · open −$68
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$423
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses29 / 131
Open positions3
Markets (closed)160 / 163
History coverage23d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 160 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$98
14 days−$363
30 days−$423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-14%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+71%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 6? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 23? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 25? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 23? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 7? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 6? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 7? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 23? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 6? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 23? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 6? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 6? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 6? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 24? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 7? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $21 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $51 −$30 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$55 +876%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$14 +462%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$33 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$9 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$10 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 −$19 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 7? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 7? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 7? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 7? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 7? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 7? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$491
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 32h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 32h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -15.7% -23.7% 18% 15% -37.6%
≤30d 160 -37.8% -43.7% 18% 16% -30.8%
≤90d 160 -37.8% -43.7% 18% 16% -30.8%
all 160 -37.8% -43.7% 18% 16% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.7% 16% -30.8%
10% -49.1% 16% -37.4%
15% -54.0% 16% -43.4%
20% -58.5% 14% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.88 · official $30.88 (match) · 481 history records