Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:30:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd833…a17d crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate70%35W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$6
crypto 11% +$2
other 5% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 50 +0.1% -9.4% 70% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses35 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage536d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 02 $33 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $240 in November? Dec 03 $53 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $28 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Oct 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 02 $27 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $24 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $5,740 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $3750 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Feb 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jagmeet Singh be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Feb 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? Jan 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? Jan 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Real Betis win La Liga? Jan 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will BSW win the second most seats in the next German election? Jan 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Jan 07 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 30d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $56 62d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 91d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $53 91d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 121d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $50 121d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $21 150d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $33 150d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 180d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $39 182d
Will Solana reach $240 in November? BUY No 100¢ $53 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 240d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $20 241d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $34 241d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $7 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $17 272d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $38 272d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $20 301d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $31 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 333d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $44 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 365d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 393d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 394d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 394d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? BUY No 100¢ $7 423d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? BUY No 100¢ $3 423d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? BUY No 100¢ $5 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.28 · official $55.28 (match) · 113 history records