Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:37:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd833…fad6 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$1
other 29% $0
politics 4% −$6
culture 1% $0
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 11 +0.4% -9.1% 36% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 +0.4% -9.1% 36% 0% -9.9%
all 28 -7.2% -16.0% 46% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -11.2%
10% -24.1% 0% -19.7%
15% -31.4% 0% -27.4%
20% -38.1% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage466d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $31 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $61 −$2 -3%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $27 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $92 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $89 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $21 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $59 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 25 $1 $0 +10%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 24 $1 $0 -25%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 23 $6 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25? Apr 22 $6 $0 -2%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 21 $7 $0 +3%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $11 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $31 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $31 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $31 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $2 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $22 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $5 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $30 24h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $3 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $2 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $27 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $27 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $15 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $21 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records