Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:49:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D8 0xd832…9c49 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$14 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate43%45W / 60L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$20
14 days−$8
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 21% +$11
sports 20% +$2
politics 14% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 25 -3.7% -12.9% 48% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 40 -2.3% -11.6% 48% 0% -9.5%
all 105 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 6% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses45 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage472d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 65¢ 64¢ $151 $150 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 69¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $622 −$8 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $97 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $751 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $183 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $176 −$10 -6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $320 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $176 −$1 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $400 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $139 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $188 −$3 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $150 +$10 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $159 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $61 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $103 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $175 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $58 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $175 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $187 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $504 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $273 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $172 +$3 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $260 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $171 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $176 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $155 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $157 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $173 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $926 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $927 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $928 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $927 +$2 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $1,018 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1,017 +$1 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 02 $9 $0 -1%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $121 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $60 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $17 +$9 +51%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Nov 26 $2 +$2 +106%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $151 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $125 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $151 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $52 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $152 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $140 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $11 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $151 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $166 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $150 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $151 45h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $105 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $61 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $176 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $176 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $44 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $58 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $74 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $45 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $115 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $14 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $146 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $128 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $72 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.70 · official $150.28 (match) · 477 history records