Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D8 0xd831…6fcc sports 136 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+7%) realized +$150 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%45W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$79
14 days+$76
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$2
crypto 35% −$91
other 24% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +34.0% +21.2% 41% 40% +7.1%
≤30d 134 +15.2% +4.2% 34% 33% -4.6%
≤90d 134 +15.2% +4.2% 34% 33% -4.6%
all 134 +15.2% +4.2% 34% 33% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 33% -4.6%
10% -5.7% 31% -13.7%
15% -14.8% 28% -22.1%
20% -23.2% 26% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses45 / 89
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage21d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ 50¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +64%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -48%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 +$21 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$6 -12%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +233%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +223%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 +$3 +272%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +113%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +118%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +113%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +177%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +236%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$3 +249%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 +$5 +473%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 +$10 +970%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$3 -59%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$2 -25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$4 +185%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$5 +223%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $38 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 6m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $101 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $88 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $51 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 11h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $1 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $87 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 13h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.73 · official $36.73 (match) · 265 history records