Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd82f…aba0 crypto 565 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-2%) realized −$129 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%277W / 312L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$160
sports 29% −$243
crypto 13% −$40
politics 3% −$75
world 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -25.1% -32.3% 34% 31% -13.1%
≤30d 102 -23.3% -30.6% 35% 32% -9.6%
≤90d 278 -6.2% -15.2% 50% 44% -10.2%
all 589 -12.8% -21.1% 47% 37% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 37% -13.0%
10% -28.7% 29% -21.3%
15% -35.6% 24% -28.9%
20% -41.9% 18% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses277 / 312
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)589 / 565
History coverage132d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 589 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 32¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 255 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Tate post 520-549 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 430-459 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 460-489 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 580-609 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 610-639 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 670-699 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 20 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 700+ posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 370-399 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 20 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-04-11? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 280-309 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 400-429 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 640-669 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Viking FK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 490-519 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 250-279 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 20 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 220-249 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 550-579 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 310-339 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 340-369 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$56 +109%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$68 +134%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$35 +70%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $10 +$2 +23%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $30 +$15 +51%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +52%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 −$23 -75%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $7 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$38 +250%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$35 +171%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 +$30 +60%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 +$6 +116%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $188 −$184 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 21h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 24h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $30 24h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $5 24h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 26h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $10 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $50 28h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 28h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $20 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 12¢ $8 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 30h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 31h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 33h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $20 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 35h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 50¢ $45 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 46h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 78¢ $80 46h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 78¢ $1 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 47h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 47h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 47h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.69 · official $37.50 · 1465 history records