Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd82c…69fe crypto 14 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-8%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$12
sports 26% −$2
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -3.5% -12.7% 57% 50% -21.0%
≤30d 14 -3.5% -12.7% 57% 50% -21.0%
≤90d 14 -3.5% -12.7% 57% 50% -21.0%
all 14 -3.5% -12.7% 57% 50% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 50% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 50% -28.5%
15% -28.7% 21% -35.5%
20% -35.7% 0% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +48%
Mattia Bellucci vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 −$5 -50%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $5 +$2 +30%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 92¢ $5 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 6d
Mattia Bellucci vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 50¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L SELL against All authority 100¢ $7 6d
Mattia Bellucci vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 99¢ $5 6d
Mattia Bellucci vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 99¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L BUY against All authority 76¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records