Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd82c…fa45 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+14%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$5
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% $0
sports 35% +$68
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -23.7% -30.9% 37% 34% -10.6%
≤30d 41 -6.1% -15.0% 41% 39% +1.2%
≤90d 41 -6.1% -15.0% 41% 39% +1.2%
all 41 -6.1% -15.0% 41% 39% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 39% +1.2%
10% -23.2% 39% -8.5%
15% -30.6% 39% -17.3%
20% -37.4% 34% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage9d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +39%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +138%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +196%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$17 +43%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$15 +144%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +75%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$38 +248%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$11 +214%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 +$19 +92%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 −$12 -89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +272%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$41 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +107%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $17 +$42 +243%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 32h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 47h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $41 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.72 · official $13.72 (match) · 88 history records