Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd828…8ab2 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$51 (-32%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$19
sports 25% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -39.5% -45.2% 27% 27% -33.0%
≤30d 12 -29.0% -35.7% 33% 33% -27.1%
≤90d 12 -29.0% -35.7% 33% 33% -27.1%
all 12 -29.0% -35.7% 33% 33% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 33% -27.1%
10% -41.9% 33% -34.1%
15% -47.5% 33% -40.4%
20% -52.6% 33% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -91% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage25d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $21 −$10 -49%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$22 +62%
Achraf Hakimi: 2+ goals Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 +$12 +121%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $9 +$12 +132%
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $9 +$8 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 2h
Achraf Hakimi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $15 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $22 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $21 3h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4h
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $9 4h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $10 7h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 47h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 7d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 25d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 25d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 25d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 25d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 52¢ $9 25d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records