Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd823…99e1 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-4%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%38W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$124
14 days+$107
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$19
other 29% −$116
sports 16% +$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +39.3% +26.1% 54% 54% +48.3%
≤30d 29 +30.5% +18.1% 48% 48% +33.0%
≤90d 77 +8.4% -2.0% 49% 49% +0.1%
all 77 +8.4% -2.0% 49% 49% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 49% +0.1%
10% -11.3% 47% -9.4%
15% -19.9% 47% -18.2%
20% -27.8% 43% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses38 / 39
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 83
History coverage42d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 55¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $14 +$18 +128%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Will Arge Jun 28 $10 +$19 +188%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -92%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 28 $5 −$3 -61%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06 Jun 27 $10 +$29 +288%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $7 +$10 +139%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Canada Jun 24 $41 +$87 +214%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$20 -67%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$18 +58%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$67 +649%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 29 $9 +$9 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 28 $8 +$8 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 28 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 20 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 20 $12 +$11 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 20 $11 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 20 $10 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $6 38m
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $33 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 43¢ $14 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06- BUY $2 6h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 32¢ $14 23h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Will Arge BUY 34¢ $10 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $0 43h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 18¢ $2 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 45h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 45¢ $5 45h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06 SELL 99¢ $39 45h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $5 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $0 45h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06 BUY 25¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 47¢ $7 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 4d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $17 4d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $7 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Canada SELL 99¢ $128 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Canada BUY 25¢ $20 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Canada BUY 40¢ $20 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $48 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $7.94 · 191 history records