Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D8 0xd81f…6b75 other 288 markets active 2d ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (179 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$53,533 (-46%) realized −$55,614 · open +$2,081
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate64%181W / 103L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day178.9pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$73,273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$7,838
sports 6% +$1,537
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (179 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.0% -39.4% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 284 +37.4% +24.3% 64% 43% -4.2%
≤90d 284 +37.4% +24.3% 64% 43% -4.2%
all 284 +37.4% +24.3% 64% 43% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover178.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.3% 43% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here +12.4% 35% -13.4%
15% +1.6% 25% -21.8%
20% -8.4% 20% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$510) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +71% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$149 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$73,273
Realized−$55,614
Unrealized+$2,081
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses181 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions76
Markets (closed)284 / 288
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$408
Trades / day178.9
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $43,938 $46,225 +$2,287 (+5%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 94¢ $16,622 $18,054 +$1,433 (+9%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 77¢ 76¢ $1,629 $1,618 −$11 (-1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 93¢ $1,419 $1,381 −$37 (-3%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 72¢ 70¢ $1,132 $1,102 −$31 (-3%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 61¢ 30¢ $1,821 $890 −$932 (-51%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $333 $350 +$17 (+5%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 34¢ $500 $345 −$155 (-31%)
Will GV CD San José win on 2026-05-12? Yes 66¢ 46¢ $430 $301 −$128 (-30%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 87¢ 82¢ $305 $289 −$16 (-5%)
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $281 $288 +$7 (+2%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 62¢ 66¢ $240 $255 +$15 (+6%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $556 $236 −$319 (-58%)
Will Betmoar launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $237 $234 −$3 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Over 52¢ 58¢ $196 $218 +$22 (+11%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $202 $217 +$15 (+8%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Over 44¢ 47¢ $154 $164 +$10 (+7%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $147 $148 +$2 (+1%)
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $133 $132 −$1 (-1%)
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 91¢ 96¢ $90 $94 +$5 (+6%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? No 87¢ 88¢ $86 $87 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 42¢ 62¢ $42 $62 +$20 (+46%)
Will Club ABB win on 2026-05-14? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $43 $47 +$4 (+9%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $52 $43 −$10 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $522 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,100 +$11 +1%
Fluminense FC leading at halftime? Jun 01 $78 −$36 -46%
SE Palmeiras leading at halftime? Jun 01 $28 −$28 -100%
Yunnan Yukun FC leading at halftime? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: SE Palmeiras 1 - 3 Associação Chapecoense de Futebol? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Red Bull Bragantino leading at halftime? Jun 01 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $16 +$62 +390%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $132 −$118 -89%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +8%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $2,074 −$978 -47%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $272 −$11 -4%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $346 +$108 +31%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $834 +$212 +25%
Will Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $25 +$1 +6%
Cruzeiro EC leading at halftime? Jun 01 $32 +$18 +54%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 01 $12 +$10 +82%
Clube do Remo leading at halftime? Jun 01 $45 +$5 +12%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $171 −$56 -32%
CR Vasco da Gama leading at halftime? Jun 01 $32 +$7 +21%
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? Jun 01 $1,010 −$310 -31%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $948 −$254 -27%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $1,146 +$708 +62%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? Jun 01 $560 +$151 +27%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $641 +$351 +55%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1,572 +$325 +21%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? May 31 $23 +$8 +36%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: Draw at halftime? May 31 $16 $0 +2%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: Draw at halftime? May 31 $19 +$31 +163%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,922 +$70 +4%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $183 $0 +0%
Will FC Ryūkyū win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Tochigi SC vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: Draw at halftime? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 31 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Gainare Tottori win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
CR Flamengo leading at halftime? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $16 −$12 -76%
Will Thespa Gunma vs. FC Gifu end in a draw? May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Santos FC 0 - 0 EC Vitória? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: Draw at halftime? May 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $92 −$21 -23%
Exact Score: EC Bahia 2 - 2 Botafogo FR? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Gainare Tottori leading at halftime? May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: CR Flamengo 2 - 3 Coritiba FBC? May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC end in a draw? May 31 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 31 $17 −$11 -65%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $186 +$56 +30%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $456 −$411 -90%
Will CR Flamengo vs. Coritiba FBC end in a draw? May 31 $219 −$176 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Betmoar launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $93 45h
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $2,997 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 47¢ $402 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 47¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 47¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 47¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 47¢ $30 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 47¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 47¢ $52 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 47¢ $27 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $522 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 89¢ $989 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $111 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $87 11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $52 13d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $11 13d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $4 13d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $1 13d
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? SELL No 81¢ $41 13d
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? SELL No 81¢ $18 13d
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? SELL No 81¢ $18 13d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $6 13d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 47¢ $52 13d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $9 13d
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? SELL No 80¢ $12 13d
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? SELL No 80¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73,272.83 · official $73,270.76 (match) · 3500 history records