Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:00:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd81e…2557 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%49W / 4L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$1
other 22% $0
weather 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 53 +0.2% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.4%
all 53 +0.2% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×5.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×97.31 per $1 lost it wins $97.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses49 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage83d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 22? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 15? Apr 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 12? Apr 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 10? Apr 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 9? Apr 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 5? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 28? Mar 28 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $25 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $9 10d
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 16d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 24d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $8 25d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 27d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $9 32d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $14 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? BUY No 99¢ $8 36d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 38d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 40d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $7 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $11 43d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 49d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $13 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $7 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.94 · official $18.94 (match) · 113 history records