Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D8 0xd81c…d388 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$41 (+20%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$40
crypto 30% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +29.2% +16.9% 100% 75% +18.3%
≤30d 4 +29.2% +16.9% 100% 75% +18.3%
≤90d 5 +25.0% +13.1% 100% 60% +15.4%
all 5 +25.0% +13.1% 100% 60% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 60% +15.4%
10% +2.2% 40% +4.4%
15% -7.6% 40% -5.7%
20% -16.7% 20% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage61d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $46 +$17 +36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 +$17 +61%
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Jun 18 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $24 +$4 +17%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? Apr 22 $20 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $63 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $46 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 3d
World Cup: Scoreless Team? SELL Yes 73¢ $28 3d
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY Yes 71¢ $28 3d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 93¢ $0 4d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 93¢ $28 4d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 79¢ $24 7d
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? SELL Yes 98¢ $22 60d
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? BUY Yes 91¢ $16 61d
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.71 · official $61.71 (match) · 13 history records