Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:02:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd815…4afa other 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate62%71W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% +$101
other 25% −$45
world 11% −$61
crypto 11% −$23
economics 11% +$3
tech 5% −$81
sports 5% +$104
finance 1% −$9
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -34.6% -40.8% 57% 14% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -58.3% -62.3% 31% 8% -57.6%
≤90d 27 -50.3% -55.0% 37% 4% -43.4%
all 114 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 11% -10.0%
10% -22.6% 9% -18.6%
15% -30.1% 7% -26.5%
20% -36.9% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses71 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)114 / 133
History coverage563d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $77 $83 +$6 (+8%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+4%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Fed abolished before 2027? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? No 96¢ 94¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 52¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-57%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 16 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 30 $20 −$3 -16%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 30 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Aston Villa finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Le May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Apr 22 $5 $0 +4%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31? Apr 20 $24 $0 +1%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? Apr 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Jerome Powell arrested by March 31? Apr 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 24 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 24 $22 $0 +0%
New 10% US blanket tariff goes into effect by February 28? Mar 24 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 7? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by April 4, 2026? Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Jan 07 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jan 07 $17 $0 +3%
Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31? Jan 07 $23 $0 +0%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Jan 07 $5 +$19 +421%
Elon Musk trillionaire in 2025? Jan 07 $24 +$1 +3%
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025? Jan 07 $25 $0 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 07 $21 +$5 +24%
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2025? Jan 07 $28 +$2 +6%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Jan 07 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Jan 07 $36 $0 +1%
China x India military clash by December 31? Jan 07 $42 $0 +0%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jan 07 $40 +$3 +9%
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? Jan 07 $28 −$28 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 18 $40 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 17 $18 +$4 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Dec 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pope Leo visit Ukraine first? Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $1 9m
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $1 12m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 96¢ $15 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $23 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 91¢ $9 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $20 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $1 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $10 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $28 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 16d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 75¢ $17 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $7 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 6¢ $14 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 16d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY No 99¢ $11 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16d
Fed abolished before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $20 16d
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim BUY Luis Felipe Dias 64¢ $10 16d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 54d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.18 · official $434.18 (match) · 336 history records