Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd814…7f65 other 81 markets active 30d ago coverage 76d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,603 (-8%) realized −$19,368 · open +$765
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate58%39W / 28L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$2,835per market
Trades / day43.9pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$9,594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$954
other 16% +$2,424
sports 16% +$1,283
politics 10% −$182
crypto 9% +$10,360
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +45.1% +31.3% 100% 100% +26.5%
≤90d 39 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 26% -11.2%
all 67 +2.8% -7.0% 58% 28% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 28% -5.0%
10% -15.9% 22% -14.1%
15% ← realistic here -24.0% 16% -22.4%
20% -31.5% 13% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$3,350) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
22.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$446 vs −$310 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$9,594
Realized−$19,368
Unrealized+$765
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses39 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions27
Markets (closed)67 / 81
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$2,835
Trades / day43.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $1,433 $2,345 +$912 (+64%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $960 $2,085 +$1,125 (+117%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $1,595 $1,105 −$490 (-31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1,300 $1,025 −$275 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $705 $615 −$90 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $870 $565 −$305 (-35%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $343 $505 +$162 (+47%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $555 $395 −$160 (-29%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $175 $254 +$79 (+45%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $279 $195 −$85 (-30%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $165 $135 −$30 (-18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $183 $133 −$49 (-27%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $45 −$30 (-40%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 87¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 64¢ 80¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Alcaraz win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? Jun 29 $1,226 −$1,913 -156%
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 31 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $529 +$371 +70%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,202 +$699 +32%
Will no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? May 30 $2 $0 +11%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 13 $233 −$233 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 13 $285 −$285 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 09 $279 +$221 +79%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 06 $60 $0 +0%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $213 +$137 +65%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $50 $0 +0%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 05 $622 +$448 +72%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 04 $4,583 −$337 -7%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $886 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $579 −$15 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $762 −$1 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 28 $108 −$2 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 28 $4,150 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 28 $3,500 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Apr 28 $398 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 28 $3 $0 -7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 28 $1,707 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $19,350 −$29 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 28 $690 −$690 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Apr 27 $580 +$409 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 17 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 17 $19 +$3 +14%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $450 +$27 +6%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $443 +$43 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 07 $10 +$6 +61%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 04 $16,136 −$1,236 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? Apr 04 $5,962 +$242 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 04 $9,970 +$14 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $231 −$47 -20%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 148.5 Mar 28 $1,020 +$358 +35%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $450 +$50 +11%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Mar 25 $15,490 $0 -0%
Spread: Houston Cougars (-3.5) Mar 25 $940 $0 +0%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-8.5) Mar 25 $470 −$10 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 24 $18,122 +$100 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $53,128 +$66 +0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $945 −$945 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $350 +$50 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 53¢ $1,207 29d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,612 29d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $59 33d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $88 35d
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 35d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $88 38d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $88 39d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 41d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 59¢ $30 42d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $88 43d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $88 44d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $88 44d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $90 45d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 46d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $88 47d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $88 49d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $88 50d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 50d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 55¢ $279 52d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 55d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $3 55d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $3 55d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $271 55d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) BUY Manchester City FC 40¢ $143 55d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $213 55d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) BUY Manchester City FC 40¢ $143 55d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $116 55d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 66¢ $233 55d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $189 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,594.29 · official $9,595.15 (match) · 3500 history records