Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:36:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd811…102d
other · 475 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$181 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$179 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$179
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses207 / 265
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)472 / 475
History coverage344d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%
Chart Positions 3 History 472 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Royal Challengers Bangalore 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-18? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-18? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals Mumbai Indians 56¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-09? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Rajasthan Royals 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Delhi Capitals 28¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +249%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$5 +44%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +48%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 $0 +27%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 $0 -7%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 $0 +19%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $8 −$8 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $2 +$1 +51%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $2 $0 -3%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Egypt vs. Russia end in a draw? May 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $10 −$9 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $6 +$3 +50%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $3 +$1 +44%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $2 $0 +12%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 19 $3 +$1 +20%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $3 +$3 +101%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $174 −$171 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $63 −$62 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $16 −$16 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% −$65
sports 32% −$135
world 3% +$19
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $11 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 3d
Will Angola win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 3d
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 3d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 3d
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.0% -15.9% 47% 47% +4.2%
≤30d 47 -24.8% -31.9% 43% 43% -34.0%
≤90d 209 -46.3% -51.4% 27% 26% -53.5%
all 472 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 43% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 43% -19.3%
10% -23.4% 38% -27.0%
15% -30.8% 34% -34.0%
20% -37.6% 29% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.67 · official $17.67 (match) · 1143 history records