Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D8 0xd80e…cad8 other 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$32 (+6%) realized +$11 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$167
14 days+$167
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$221
sports 27% −$26
world 3% −$5
politics 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -5.3% -14.3% 38% 35% +39.3%
≤30d 38 -4.0% -13.2% 39% 37% +39.2%
≤90d 38 -4.0% -13.2% 39% 37% +39.2%
all 41 -4.5% -13.6% 41% 39% +38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 39% +38.7%
10% -21.9% 39% +25.4%
15% -29.4% 37% +13.3%
20% -36.4% 32% +2.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +53% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$6 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions20
Markets (closed)41 / 61
History coverage161d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $110 $138 +$28 (+25%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$6 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$13 +216%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $73 −$72 -98%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $45 +$113 +253%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $24 +$28 +117%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $21 +$72 +340%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +69%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$3 -70%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $12 +$14 +118%
Thiago Almada: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +84%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by January 9? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump's travel ban removed by January 31? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in January? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$14 +441%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$8 +60%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $21 +$18 +87%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 04 $1 $0 +42%
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Jan 07 $1 $0 +23%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9? Jan 07 $1 $0 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 20m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 44m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 47m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 49m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 50m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 1h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $61 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $69 1h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $158 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 1h
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $41 1h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $93 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 1h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $8 2h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.14 · official $264.14 (match) · 118 history records