Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd805…c187 politics 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,819 (-2%) realized −$1,819 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 96L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,109per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$540now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$15
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$69
other 43% −$69
sports 3% −$1,728
culture 2% −$2
world 2% −$3
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -1.1% -10.5% 9% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 106 -4.2% -13.4% 9% 5% -10.9%
all 106 -4.2% -13.4% 9% 5% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 5% -10.9%
10% -21.7% 5% -19.5%
15% -29.2% 5% -27.2%
20% -36.2% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$1,631) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$22 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$540
Realized−$1,819
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage89d
Avg bet$1,109
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $310 $310 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $229 $229 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,029 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $826 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $237 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $952 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 17 $2,232 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,140 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,097 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $449 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,144 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $635 −$1 -0%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $56 +$37 +67%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $685 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,647 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 02 $192 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $239 +$1 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,092 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $4,285 −$5 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $304 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? May 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $955 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 21 $615 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 21 $44 +$36 +83%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $204 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 20 $27 +$22 +83%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $258 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $5,191 −$5 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $3,643 −$4 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $36 +$33 +93%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $1,921 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $2,016 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $311 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $335 15h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $335 18h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $308 20h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $308 24h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $236 39h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $237 43h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $226 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $226 4d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $538 6d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $539 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $517 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $518 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $573 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $574 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $418 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $419 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $570 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $571 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $582 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $583 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $449 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $449 9d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $230 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $596 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $597 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $674 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $675 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $653 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $654 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $539.74 · official $539.74 (match) · 367 history records