Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd804…b7f6 world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$3
other 18% $0
finance 6% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -9.0%
all 23 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -28.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage463d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 80¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $50 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $7 $0 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $87 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $91 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $6 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $41 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Yoon in jail before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 28 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $47 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $23 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $1 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $7 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $26 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $11 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $5 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $37 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $5 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $0 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $46 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $45 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $26 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $38 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.52 · official $47.20 (match) · 84 history records