Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd800…c256 crypto 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8,662 (+4%) realized +$8,680 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate80%135W / 33L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,167per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$1,262
14 days+$800
30 days+$2,711
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$8,642
other 3% −$173
sports 3% −$396
world 2% +$72
economics 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -13.1% -21.4% 64% 22% -14.2%
≤30d 109 -8.1% -16.9% 72% 25% -6.3%
≤90d 121 -7.6% -16.4% 74% 23% -5.7%
all 168 +0.7% -8.9% 80% 21% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 21% -6.1%
10% -17.6% 11% -15.1%
15% -25.6% 5% -23.3%
20% -32.9% 3% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$90 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.76 per $1 lost it wins $3.76
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$2,730
Realized+$8,680
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses135 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions21
Markets (closed)168 / 189
History coverage199d
Avg bet$1,167
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $324 $369 +$45 (+14%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $355 $358 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $320 $267 −$53 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $220 $209 −$11 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $238 $207 −$31 (-13%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $160 $169 +$9 (+6%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $156 $155 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $158 $145 −$13 (-8%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $94 $97 +$3 (+3%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $87 $91 +$4 (+5%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $73 $86 +$12 (+17%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $82 $84 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $68 $77 +$9 (+14%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+17%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $151 −$21 -14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$20 -20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 −$85 -56%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$25 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$7 +21%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 17 $1,310 +$88 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 17 $4,464 −$45 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 17 $782 −$43 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 17 $3,845 +$36 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 17 $4,805 +$32 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 17 $1,059 +$16 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$5 -3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 −$11 -12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $71 −$13 -18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +74%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $200 +$12 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$26 +39%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $126 +$20 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $73 +$2 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $65 +$8 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 −$35 -35%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $50 +$20 +40%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -92%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $39 +$3 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $92 +$117 +128%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $97 −$55 -56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $85 −$71 -83%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $87 −$71 -82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $89 −$67 -75%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $93 −$79 -85%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $64 −$45 -71%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$86 -85%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $69 1m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 11m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 19m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 63¢ $81 24m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $55 45m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 29¢ $67 46m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 46m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $125 49m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $61 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $25 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 71¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $110 1h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $92 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $51 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 2h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? SELL No 96¢ $164 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL No 92¢ $3,939 6h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL No 92¢ $160 6h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL No 92¢ $160 6h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL No 92¢ $160 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,730.49 · official $2,731.18 (match) · 1117 history records