Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7ff…b951 weather 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$185 (-27%) realized −$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% −$206
sports 8% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -32.6% -39.0% 24% 22% -40.3%
≤30d 37 -32.6% -39.0% 24% 22% -40.3%
≤90d 37 -32.6% -39.0% 24% 22% -40.3%
all 37 -32.6% -39.0% 24% 22% -40.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 22% -40.3%
10% -44.9% 16% -46.0%
15% -50.2% 14% -51.2%
20% -55.1% 11% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage5d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$2 -16%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $14 −$4 -28%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 −$14 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 13 $22 −$9 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $22 +$12 +52%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$10 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $30 −$29 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $82 −$40 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$4 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $20 −$9 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $26 −$11 -43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $30 −$6 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $20 −$9 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $9 −$3 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $19 −$10 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $16 −$14 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$16 -79%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 10 $25 −$12 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 +$11 +94%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 +$21 +168%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $15 +$10 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 60¢ $12 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 47¢ $33 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $48 29h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 29h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? SELL No 78¢ $34 29h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 20¢ $10 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 34h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 46h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 46h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL No 17¢ $14 46h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL No 19¢ $28 46h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records