Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7f9…5d77 politics 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% $0
other 22% −$6
sports 16% −$4
culture 6% −$1
economics 5% −$3
world 2% +$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 9 -11.2% -19.7% 22% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -11.2% -19.7% 22% 0% -9.7%
all 87 -8.3% -17.0% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -24.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×9.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 83
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage373d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $177 $177 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $175 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $171 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $168 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $165 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $171 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 10 $102 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $78 +$1 +2%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $1 $0 -13%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $102 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 26 $1 $0 -42%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $1 $0 -50%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 22 $2 $0 -19%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 22 $100 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 21 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $178 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $355 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $176 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $310 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $306 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $1 $0 -29%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $173 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 07 $180 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 05 $178 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $175 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 27 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $176 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 09 $2 $0 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $179 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $259 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $231 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 23 $1 $0 -33%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will Ed Sheeran be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 17 $417 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 17 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $177 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $1 2d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $175 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $175 5d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $171 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $168 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $171 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $171 14d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $165 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $165 18d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 18d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 20d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $171 20d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $171 22d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $102 100d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $102 137d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 137d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $102 141d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $102 144d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 144d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $78 144d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 144d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 145d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.73 · official $176.73 (match) · 406 history records