Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd7f8…89e4
world · 15 markets active 13d ago
0.0score
−$16,472 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$31,932 · open +$24,075
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$97,615
Realized−$31,932
Unrealized+$24,075
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions14
Markets (closed)7 / 15
History coverage74d
Avg bet$12,757
Trades / day45.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 14 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 26¢ 43¢ $29,963 $49,489 +$19,525 (+65%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 18¢ 40¢ $9,933 $21,797 +$11,864 (+119%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 24¢ 16¢ $12,493 $7,993 −$4,500 (-36%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7,000 $7,500 +$500 (+7%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3,009 $2,951 −$58 (-2%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,486 $2,582 +$96 (+4%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $1,680 $1,888 +$208 (+12%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,812 $1,400 −$412 (-23%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $740 $1,157 +$416 (+56%)
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $3,663 $716 −$2,946 (-80%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $729 $73 −$656 (-90%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $23 $56 +$33 (+143%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+60%)
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 03 $505 +$154 +30%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $111,754 −$5,808 -5%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 12 $29,000 −$29,000 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 12 $558 −$558 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Mar 31 $2,700 −$400 -15%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 23 $13 +$3,067 +22902%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 22 $950 +$614 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 78% −$15,937
other 16% −$7,565
economics 5% +$15,549
politics 1% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 31¢ $63 12d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 31¢ $20 12d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 31¢ $992 13d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 31¢ $2 13d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 31¢ $426 13d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $59 23d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $98 23d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $374 23d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $94 23d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 23d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $78 23d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $79 23d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $148 23d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL Yes 20¢ $3 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+232.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 +267.9% +232.8% 43% 43% -31.1%
all 7 +267.9% +232.8% 43% 43% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +232.8% 43% -31.1%
10% +201.0% 43% -37.7%
15% ← realistic here +171.9% 29% -43.7%
20% +145.2% 29% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97,614.54 · official $97,614.54 (match) · 3500 history records