Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd7f7…d191
other · 113 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$620 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$621 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,278
Realized+$621
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses32 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
Avg bet$1,120
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 112 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$13
14 days−$19
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,278 $1,278 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4,634 −$7 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,201 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $380 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $692 +$3 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,774 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $719 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,802 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 09 $1,697 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,689 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,863 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,700 −$3 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 02 $252 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 02 $506 +$1 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $4,622 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,600 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,829 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $2,229 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,498 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,729 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,229 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,237 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,311 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 12 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 11 $1,605 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $3,204 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 42% −$61
other 36% +$30
sports 9% +$643
world 5% +$11
culture 4% −$6
economics 3% −$5
crypto 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,279 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,636 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,638 6h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,478 24h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,481 26h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,336 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,338 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,079 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,080 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,252 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,254 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,663 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,665 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,416 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,418 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,148 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,150 10d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $724 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $725 12d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $604 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $605 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $419 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $419 16d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $719 16d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $719 16d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $714 16d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $716 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $380 16d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $781 19d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $782 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 70 -9.0% -17.7% 11% 3% -9.5%
all 112 +5.1% -4.9% 29% 14% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 14% -9.1%
10% -14.0% 14% -17.8%
15% -22.3% 12% -25.7%
20% -29.9% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,277.54 · official $1,277.54 (match) · 321 history records