Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7f6…417b crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$123 (-52%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$135
crypto 16% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.7% -21.9% 38% 38% -61.8%
≤30d 8 -13.7% -21.9% 38% 38% -61.8%
≤90d 8 -13.7% -21.9% 38% 38% -61.8%
all 8 -13.7% -21.9% 38% 38% -61.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 38% -61.8%
10% -29.4% 38% -65.4%
15% -36.2% 38% -68.8%
20% -42.5% 25% -71.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$30 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $200 −$135 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records