Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D7 0xd7f6…4779 sports 28 markets active 6h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$74 (-15%) realized −$74 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate46%12W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day11.4pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-34.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	-27.4%	-34.3%	46%	27%	-25.1%
≤30d	26	-27.4%	-34.3%	46%	27%	-25.1%
≤90d	26	-27.4%	-34.3%	46%	27%	-25.1%
all	26	-27.4%	-34.3%	46%	27%	-25.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.3%	27%	-25.1%
10%	-40.6%	23%	-32.3%
15%	-46.4%	23%	-38.8%
20%	-51.6%	12%	-44.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

42% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -34% → late -21% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.53 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$23

Realized−$74

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)46%

Wins / losses12 / 14

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)26 / 28

History coverage5d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day11.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Team Falcons	60¢	60¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Leviatán Esports	36¢	34¢	$8	$8	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$1	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$19	+$9	+47%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$15	−$15	-99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$5	−$2	-37%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 20	$5	+$12	+226%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$30	+$17	+57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	−$51	-100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 18	$30	+$5	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Jun 18	$5	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Jun 18	$26	−$25	-98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 16	$50	+$1	+1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$61	+$29	+48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	Jun 16	$32	−$6	-20%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026?	Jun 16	$21	+$1	+4%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch	Jun 16	$15	+$13	+88%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$15	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$11	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$5	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$5	6h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Leviatán Esports	36¢	$8	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$5	6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$27	14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$6	18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	58¢	$5	19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$3	19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$13	19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	56¢	$10	30h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	30¢	$5	2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	65¢	$20	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	72¢	$25	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	SELL Aurora Gaming	100¢	$36	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Aurora Gaming	89¢	$10	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Aurora Gaming	82¢	$20	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	SELL Up	92¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	SELL Up	80¢	$6	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$5	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.54 · official $22.54 (match) · 62 history records