Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D7 0xd7f3…52d8 weather 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$417 (-1%) realized −$420 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%140W / 111L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$69
14 days+$61
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 41% −$12
weather 34% −$449
politics 14% −$5
other 8% +$18
sports 2% −$27
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.5% -9.9% 60% 60% +2.5%
≤30d 67 +6.4% -3.7% 57% 55% -4.8%
≤90d 229 -3.8% -12.9% 59% 39% -12.5%
all 251 -3.4% -12.6% 56% 36% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 36% -10.9%
10% -21.0% 28% -19.4%
15% -28.6% 21% -27.2%
20% -35.6% 14% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$420
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses140 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)251 / 254
History coverage158d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? No 73¢ 70¢ $114 $110 −$4 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? No 74¢ 100¢ $57 $76 +$20 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? No 66¢ 53¢ $66 $53 −$13 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $74 −$24 -32%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $70 +$30 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $57 +$16 +28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $6 +$4 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $83 +$17 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$10 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $48 +$27 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 +$30 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$15 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$17 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$13 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$6 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$10 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$10 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $48 +$25 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $77 −$62 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $60 −$38 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$11 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $61 +$14 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $77 +$23 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $35 −$15 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $38 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 +$8 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 +$4 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $68 +$32 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $28 +$9 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 −$23 -78%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 −$17 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $12 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 −$18 -94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 08 $5 +$5 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $46 +$29 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $59 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $43 −$23 -53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $9 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $53 +$27 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 +$4 +30%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$5 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 −$9 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 −$4 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? SELL No 75¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY No 72¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $37 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $57 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $74 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 14h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 77¢ $71 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 77¢ $1 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $57 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $70 30h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $21 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $17 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.22 · official $239.22 (match) · 972 history records