Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:00:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

D7 0xd7f3…ec52 sports 25 markets active 8h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$390 (+14%) realized +$394 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate59%13W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$108per market

Trades / day13.7pace

Fees−$20est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-2.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+7.3%	-2.9%	59%	50%	+4.8%
≤30d	22	+7.3%	-2.9%	59%	50%	+4.8%
≤90d	22	+7.3%	-2.9%	59%	50%	+4.8%
all	22	+7.3%	-2.9%	59%	50%	+4.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.9%	50%	+4.8%
10%	-12.2%	50%	-5.3%
15%	-20.7%	45%	-14.4%
20%	-28.4%	41%	-22.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

15% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +31% → late -16% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$94 vs −$94 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.44 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$296

Realized+$394

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses13 / 9

Est. fees paid−$20

Open positions3

Markets (closed)22 / 25

History coverage2d

Avg bet$108

Trades / day13.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	2¢	$100	$103	+$3 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$100	$102	+$2 (+2%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$100	$90	−$10 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$305	+$320	+105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$101	+$29	+29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$101	+$58	+57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$101	−$100	-99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$101	−$100	-99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 18	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 18	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$102	+$148	+146%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama?	Jun 18	$20	+$18	+90%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$101	−$100	-99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$74	+73%
England to score first vs. Croatia?	Jun 17	$101	+$63	+62%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 17	$102	+$231	+226%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	Jun 17	$100	+$5	+5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$101	+$42	+42%
Spread: England (-2.5)	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$55	+55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$200	+$15	+7%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$102	+$168	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$130	7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$203	24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$101	24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$101	24h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$103	24h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	24h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	68¢	$101	28h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	23¢	$102	28h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$102	29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	29h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	31h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama?	BUY Yes	52¢	$20	33h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$101	33h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	68¢	$101	33h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)	BUY Ghana	19¢	$51	33h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$102	33h
England to score first vs. Croatia?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	70¢	$101	2d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	BUY England	95¢	$100	2d
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	30¢	$102	2d
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	13¢	$103	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	93¢	$200	2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	37¢	$102	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.51 · official $295.51 (match) · 40 history records