Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7f1…5849 weather 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-21%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-67.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -64.6% -67.9% 20% 10% -39.5%
≤30d 10 -64.6% -67.9% 20% 10% -39.5%
≤90d 10 -64.6% -67.9% 20% 10% -39.5%
all 10 -64.6% -67.9% 20% 10% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.9% 10% -39.5%
10% -71.0% 10% -45.3%
15% -73.8% 10% -50.6%
20% -76.4% 10% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.21 · official $3.21 (match) · 18 history records