Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D7 0xd7f1…73cd world 325 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 133d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$39,666 (+57%) realized +$43,411 · open −$3,745
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%114W / 170L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5,819now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$828
14 days+$2,688
30 days+$2,767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$23,506
other 12% −$610
politics 4% +$1,145
crypto 2% −$5
finance 1% −$510
sports 0% −$337
tech 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+49.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +106.6% +87.0% 100% 50% +119.4%
≤30d 56 -17.8% -25.6% 34% 30% +14.3%
≤90d 174 +43.4% +29.7% 39% 32% +4.1%
all 284 +65.0% +49.3% 40% 33% +25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.3% 33% +25.7%
10% ← realistic here +35.0% 30% +13.6%
15% +22.0% 29% +2.7%
20% +10.0% 26% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +60% → late +70% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$477 vs −$161 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$5,819
Realized+$43,411
Unrealized−$3,745
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses114 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Open positions50
Markets (closed)284 / 325
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$212
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $2,366 $2,494 +$128 (+5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $938 $998 +$60 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $478 $590 +$112 (+23%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 64¢ 16¢ $1,213 $301 −$912 (-75%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 26¢ 40¢ $157 $242 +$84 (+54%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $144 $149 +$5 (+4%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $322 $121 −$201 (-62%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $130 $95 −$35 (-27%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $118 $94 −$24 (-20%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $70 $67 −$2 (-4%)
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $77 $61 −$16 (-21%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $56 $60 +$4 (+7%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 48¢ 90¢ $29 $55 +$25 (+87%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $540 $55 −$485 (-90%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 5¢ $255 $48 −$207 (-81%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $53 $47 −$6 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 35¢ 7¢ $181 $39 −$143 (-79%)
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $59 $36 −$24 (-40%)
US x China Military clash before 2027? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $55 $35 −$20 (-36%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $233 $29 −$204 (-87%)
Megaquake by June 30? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $116 $29 −$87 (-75%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $282 $25 −$257 (-91%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Yes 34¢ 12¢ $63 $23 −$40 (-63%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 28¢ $34 $19 −$15 (-45%)
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Yes 29¢ 5¢ $72 $12 −$60 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $397 +$812 +205%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 19 $1,307 +$1,263 +97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 19 $671 +$1,459 +217%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 19 $344 +$488 +142%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 19 $160 +$92 +57%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Jun 19 $138 −$84 -61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 19 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 19 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 19 $192 +$36 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 19 $214 −$24 -11%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $117 +$125 +106%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $102 +$302 +296%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $267 +$30 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $271 +$1,121 +414%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $32 +$68 +212%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $223 −$148 -67%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 16 $285 −$285 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 16 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Trump’s Xi summit? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 16 $225 −$217 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? Jun 16 $351 −$318 -91%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 16 $597 −$551 -92%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 16 $386 +$192 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 16 $925 −$15 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 16 $333 −$169 -51%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 16 $247 −$247 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 16 $494 −$484 -98%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $56 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $53 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 58¢ $56 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $30 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 62¢ $61 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 28¢ $54 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $66 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 58¢ $203 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $224 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $105 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $35 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 2d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 4d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 5d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 5d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 7d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 7d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $70 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,819.24 · official $5,819.50 (match) · 3500 history records