Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7ef…c5f4 crypto 711 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,079 (+0%) realized +$3,079 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%615W / 96L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$1,976per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$438
7 days+$888
14 days+$989
30 days+$1,242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$728
other 44% +$1,737
politics 7% +$195
sports 5% +$585
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +0.3% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 300 -6.8% -15.7% 88% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 684 -5.6% -14.6% 86% 0% -9.5%
all 711 -5.4% -14.4% 86% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -22.6% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -30.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$2,991) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$24 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,079
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses615 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)711 / 711
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$1,976
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 711 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $129 +$1 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $472 $0 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2,315 +$2 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $113 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,535 +$16 +1%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $189 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,980 +$20 +1%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $799 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $6,633 +$6 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10,494 +$106 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10,121 +$102 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $396 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10,490 +$10 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10,395 +$105 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10,197 +$103 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2,484 +$2 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $574 +$6 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,940 +$60 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,644 +$37 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1,890 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $911 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $525 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2,443 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $397 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $925 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $169 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2,498 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $191 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2,095 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 14? Jun 14 $82 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 14 $1,499 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1,250 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $490 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2,698 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1,039 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $66 11m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 12m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 13m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 13m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $216 13m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 13m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $359 13m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 13m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 13m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 14m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,415 14m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 14m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $144 14m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 14m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 14m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 14m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 15m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 15m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 15m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 15m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 15m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 16m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $255 16m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 16m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 16m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 16m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 16m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 16m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $73 16m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records